Message-ID: <6588980.1075840903860.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 11:52:00 -0800 (PST)
From: james.steffes@enron.com
To: alan.comnes@enron.com, chris.foster@enron.com, christian.yoder@enron.com, 
	christopher.calger@enron.com, cynthia.sandherr@enron.com, 
	dan.leff@enron.com, david.delainey@enron.com, 
	dennis.benevides@enron.com, don.black@enron.com, 
	elizabeth.sager@enron.com, elizabeth.tilney@enron.com, 
	eric.thode@enron.com, gordon.savage@enron.com, greg.wolfe@enron.com, 
	harry.kingerski@enron.com, jubran.whalan@enron.com, 
	jeff.dasovich@enron.com, jeffrey.hodge@enron.com, 
	joe.hartsoe@enron.com, john.lavorato@enron.com, 
	john.neslage@enron.com, kathryn.corbally@enron.com, 
	keith.holst@enron.com, kristin.walsh@enron.com, 
	leslie.lawner@enron.com, linda.robertson@enron.com, 
	louise.kitchen@enron.com, marcia.linton@enron.com, 
	mary.schoen@enron.com, mday@gmssr.com, mark.palmer@enron.com, 
	marty.sunde@enron.com, mary.hain@enron.com, 
	michael.tribolet@enron.com, mike.smith@enron.com, 
	mike.grigsby@enron.com, neil.bresnan@enron.com, 
	paul.kaufman@enron.com, phillip.allen@enron.com, 
	robert.badeer@enron.com, rebecca.cantrell@enron.com, 
	richard.sanders@enron.com, richard.shapiro@enron.com, 
	rob.bradley@enron.com, robert.williams@enron.com, 
	robert.frank@enron.com, robert.frank@enron.com, 
	robert.johnston@enron.com, robert.neustaedter@enron.com, 
	sandra.mccubbin@enron.com, scott.stoness@enron.com, 
	shelley.corman@enron.com, steve.hall@enron.com, 
	steve.walton@enron.com, steven.kean@enron.com, susan.mara@enron.com, 
	tim.belden@enron.com, tom.briggs@enron.com, 
	travis.mccullough@enron.com, vance.meyer@enron.com, 
	vicki.sharp@enron.com, wendy.conwell@enron.com, 
	william.bradford@enron.com
Subject: CA Supply Realities
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-From: James D Steffes <James D Steffes/NA/Enron@ENRON>
X-To: Alan Comnes <Alan Comnes/PDX/ECT@ECT>, Chris H Foster <Chris H Foster/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Christian Yoder <Christian Yoder/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Christopher F Calger <Christopher F Calger/PDX/ECT@ECT>, Cynthia Sandherr <Cynthia Sandherr/Corp/Enron@ENRON>, Dan Leff <Dan Leff/HOU/EES@EES>, David W Delainey <David W Delainey/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Dennis Benevides <Dennis Benevides/HOU/EES@EES>, Don Black <Don Black/HOU/EES@EES>, Elizabeth Sager <Elizabeth Sager/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Elizabeth Tilney <Elizabeth Tilney/HOU/EES@EES>, Eric Thode <Eric Thode/Corp/Enron@ENRON>, Gordon Savage <Gordon Savage/HOU/EES@EES>, Greg Wolfe <Greg Wolfe/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Harry Kingerski <Harry Kingerski/NA/Enron@Enron>, Jubran Whalan <Jubran Whalan/HOU/EES@EES>, Jeff Dasovich <Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron@Enron>, Jeffrey T Hodge <Jeffrey T Hodge/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Joe Hartsoe <Joe Hartsoe/Corp/Enron@ENRON>, John J Lavorato <John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron>, John Neslage <John Neslage/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT>, Kathryn Corbally <Kathryn Corbally/Corp/Enron@ENRON>, Keith Holst <Keith Holst/HOU/ECT@ect>, Kristin Walsh <Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Leslie Lawner <Leslie Lawner/NA/Enron@Enron>, Linda Robertson <Linda Robertson/NA/Enron@ENRON>, Louise Kitchen <Louise Kitchen/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Marcia A Linton <Marcia A Linton/NA/Enron@Enron>, Mary Schoen <Mary Schoen/NA/Enron@Enron>, mday <mday@gmssr.com>, Mark Palmer <Mark Palmer/Corp/Enron@ENRON>, Marty Sunde <Marty Sunde/HOU/EES@EES>, Mary Hain <Mary Hain/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Michael Tribolet <Michael Tribolet/Corp/Enron@Enron>, Mike D Smith <Mike D Smith/HOU/EES@EES>, Mike Grigsby <Mike Grigsby/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Neil Bresnan <Neil Bresnan/HOU/EES@EES>, Paul Kaufman <Paul Kaufman/PDX/ECT@ECT>, Phillip K Allen <Phillip K Allen/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Robert Badeer <Robert Badeer/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Rebecca W Cantrell <Rebecca W Cantrell/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Richard B Sanders <Richard B Sanders/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Richard Shapiro <Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron>, Rob Bradley <Rob Bradley/Corp/Enron@ENRON>, Robert C Williams <Robert C Williams/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT>, Robert Frank <Robert Frank/NA/Enron@Enron>, Robert Frank <Robert Frank/NA/Enron@Enron>, Robert Johnston <Robert Johnston/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Robert Neustaedter <Robert Neustaedter/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT>, Sandra McCubbin <Sandra McCubbin/NA/Enron@Enron>, Scott Stoness <Scott Stoness/HOU/EES@EES>, Shelley Corman <Shelley Corman/Enron@EnronXGate>, Steve C Hall <Steve C Hall/PDX/ECT@ECT>, Steve Walton <Steve Walton/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Steven J Kean <Steven J Kean/NA/Enron@Enron>, Susan J Mara <Susan J Mara/NA/Enron@ENRON>, Tim Belden <Tim Belden/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Tom Briggs <Tom Briggs/NA/Enron@Enron>, Travis McCullough <Travis McCullough/HOU/ECT@ECT>, Vance Meyer <Vance Meyer/NA/Enron@ENRON>, Vicki Sharp <Vicki Sharp/HOU/EES@EES>, Wendy Conwell <Wendy Conwell/NA/Enron@ENRON>, William S Bradford <William S Bradford/HOU/ECT@ECT>
X-cc: 
X-bcc: 
X-Folder: \ExMerge - Kitchen, Louise\'Americas\Regulatory
X-Origin: KITCHEN-L
X-FileName: louise kitchen 2-7-02.pst

For those that have not seen this analysis, attached please find a note from Mary Schoen detailing the serious physical shortage problems that may occur this Summer in CA.

Jim

----- Forwarded by James D Steffes/NA/Enron on 02/26/2001 08:51 AM -----


	Mary Schoen 02/22/2001 02:55 PM 	   To: Neil Bresnan/HOU/EES@EES, Alan Comnes/PDX/ECT@ECT, Jubran Whalan/HOU/EES@EES, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, Clayton Seigle/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey Keeler/Corp/Enron@ENRON, James D Steffes/NA/Enron@Enron, Harry Kingerski/NA/Enron@Enron, Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron, Janel Guerrero/Corp/Enron@Enron, Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron@Enron, Sandra McCubbin/NA/Enron@Enron, Susan J Mara/NA/Enron@ENRON, Paul Kaufman/PDX/ECT@ECT  cc:   Subject: CA Supply Realities	


Attached is a memo comparing the CEC's forecasted supply and a more realistic look at what additional resources might be available this summer.

The bottom line is that:

1.  The CEC significantly underestimates the outages that may occur this summer.  They estimate in their 5,000 MW supply deficit for the summer that expected outages will be around 3,000MW.  However, November and December saw significantly higher outage levels.  (7,265 MWs) The FERC has investigated these outages and found no improprieties- just that the plants are overtaxed from running at higher than normal capacities.

2.  There are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the 1,244 MWs of projected supply from rerating/restarting existing thermal and renewable projects.  It is very unclear how much of this will be able to come on line by this summer, if at all.  As evidenced by the e-mail I sent out this morning, local communities may be very opposed to restarting shut down units.  In addition, these units are likely to be uneconomical.

3.  In the existing resource pool, there are roughly 1,430 MWs of peaking or other generation units that are running up against their operating hour limitations from air quality regulations.  The Governor has ordered the local air quality districts to address these restrictions,  We are beginning to seem some movement; however, the US EPA has yet to weigh in on these relaxed standards.

4.  The distributed generation/back-up generation capacity to make up some of the shortfall is still an unknown.  While there has been some relaxing of the limitations on run hours for back-up generation at "essential public services" the increase in DG is expected from "clean" sources, not diesel emergency generators.

5.  The CEC is doing everything it can to get 50+ MW peaking units on-line by this summer.  They are promising a 21-day permit application approval process and are offering to pay half of the cost of offsets, for "clean" sources of generation in critical areas.

Please let me know if you have any questions or need additional information.

 

CEC's Summer Forecasted Peak Demand - Resource Balance:

 
 
List of Peakers running into their operating hour limitations:

 

Also available in hard copy format only:
(please e-mail me your fax number if you'd like a copy)

Table 1:  Fully Executed CA ISO Summer Reliability Agreements (the ISO Peaking Facilities)
Table 2:  Summer 2001 Supply Options - Renewables Construction Status Summary
Table 3:  Summer 2001 Supply Options - Rerate of Non-CEC Projects
Table 4:  Summer 2001 Supply Options - CEC Rerate Status Summary
Table 5:  Idle Biomass Plants Potentially Capable of Restart
Mary Schoen
Environmental Strategies
Enron Corp
713-345-7422